Kelsey B.
Predictive Alpha Prime - SCAM
I purchased the Predictive Alpha Prime service about a month and a half ago. This AI service was a complete scam - after tracking performance of over 50 stocks for the last month, I'm pretty sure the AI that they "spent so much time and money on" is just a random number generator. It literally would have been better to make trades in the opposite direction of what the AI predicted. For example, of 50 stocks only 7 out of the 50 stocks were even within a 2% range from the predicted price. 23 were over a 10% variance. 6 of those were even over a 20% variance. Here's a snapshot: ADBE - Predicted change from 5/5 to 6/5 = 0.2%; Actual change = 24.6%; Variance = 24.4% ASML - Predicted change from 5/5 to 6/5 = -0.6%; Actual change = 11.1%; Variance = 11.7% BURL - Predicted change from 5/5 to 6/5 = 0.5%; Actual change = -18.7%; Variance = -19.2% Tradesmith's marketing practices are extremely deceptive and unethical. Please stay away.
Response from TradeSmith, LLCJun 8, 2023
We are very sorry to hear that this customer hasn’t been satisfied with Predictive Alpha so far. Our developers have done some research and they did notice that 5/2 happens to be one of the worst performing days we’ve had since launching the product. Admittedly, results on individual days (or even weeks) can be hit or miss… And we only launched the product about six weeks ago, but here are the complete results from 4/25/23 - 6/5/2023: Decile Projection Count Avg Actual 21-Day Return Win Rate 1 2,452 +4.22% 59.3% 2 2,451 +2.22% 54.3% 3 2,451 +2.36% 52.8% 4 2,451 +1.50% 51.0% 5 2,452 +0.57% 46.7% 6 2,450 -0.25% 40.9% 7 2,451 +0.27% 43.5% 8 2,451 +0.28% 44.5% 9 2,451 +0.29% 44.8% 10 2,452 +1.95% 52.1% Notes: - Sample covers roughly 2750 individual securities projected each trading day from 4/25/2023 through 5/5/2023, with actual returns calculated through 6/5/23. - “Win Rate” represents the percentage of stocks which had a positive return after 21 trading days (1 month). - If the model is working, we would expect to see better performance across top rows of the table (e.g., deciles 1-3) and worse performance towards the bottom (e.g., deciles 8-10). - We generally see the expected performance pattern, with the exception of decile 10, which has performed better than expected up to this point (and we would occasionally see similar patterns in backtesting). Most notably the top 10% highest projections (decile 1) have returned 4.22% per month (64% annualized), with 59.3% going up. By comparison, the average across all securities for the period was +1.34% with 49% up. Also, it is important to note that Predictive Alpha subscribers receive a portfolio managed by our editors. They provide some oversight, as we know there will always be some inherent risk associated with trusting the output of an ML algorithm (or any algo) blindly. This customer has access to all the published editorial material and to the model portfolio. And so far, we can say that the official Predictive Alpha Prime portfolio is doing well: # Positions: 13 Average Holding Time: 13.3 days Average Return 3.66% Average Annualized Return: +170% This customer did contact us regarding canceling. We explained that there was a guarantee and that they would receive a 90 day TradeSmith Credit if they canceled. They could use this credit toward any other TradeSmith product of their choosing. The customer declined the credit and asked us to remove the automatic renewal from their subscription in lieu of canceling so they still have any active subscription at this time.